Green paradox

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The Green Paradox is the title of a controversial book by German economist, Hans-Werner Sinn, describing the observation that an environmental policy that becomes greener with the passage of time acts like an announced expropriation for the owners of fossil fuel resources, inducing them to accelerate resource extraction and hence to accelerate global warming.

Main line of reasoning

The Green Paradox's line of reasoning starts by recognizing a fundamental, unavoidable fact: every carbon atom in the gas, coal or oil extracted from the ground to be used as fuel ends up in the atmosphere, in particular if high efficiency combustion processes ensure that no part of it ends up as soot. About a quarter of the emitted carbon will stay in the atmosphere practically forever, contributing to the greenhouse effect that causes global warming.[1][2][3]

조림과 별개로 대기의 탄소 축적을 완화할 수 있는 것은 두 가지뿐인데, 즉 땅에서 탄소를 덜 뽑아내거나 에너지를 수확한 후 지하에 다시 주입하는 것이다.[citation needed]

환경 정책 노력, 특히 유럽 정책 노력은 대체 에너지, CO-프리
2 에너지 자원 및 보다 효율적인 에너지 사용을 목표로 첫 번째 방향으로 움직이며, 이 두 가지 모두 탄화수소에 대한 수요를 줄여야 한다. 특히 저자인 한스-워너 신씨는 재생 에너지원에 대한 지원 계획은 별 효과가 없다고 주장하지만 화석 연료 소비와 생산에 대한 정부의 지원은 간과하고 있다.[original research?] 경제협력개발기구(OECD) 보고서에 따르면 OECD 국가들과 주요 신흥국들의 이러한 지원은 연간 미화 1600억~2000억 달러로 높은 수준이다. 이러한 지원은 배기가스를 억제하고 기후변화와 싸우기 위한 세계적인 노력을 방해한다고 한다.[4]

신녹색정책에 따르면 향후 수십년간 점진적인 정책 강화를 예고함으로써 현재보다 미래 물가에 더 강한 하방 압력을 가해 화석연료 매장량의 시세차익률을 떨어뜨리고 있다. 이러한 자원의 소유주들은 이러한 개발을 우려하여 추출량을 증가시켜 수익률이 더 높은 자본 시장에 대한 투자로 전환함으로써 반응한다. 그것이 바로 녹색의 역설이다: 시간이 지남에 따라 더 푸르게 될 환경 정책은 소유주들이 화석연료 재고 추출 속도를 가속화하여 기후 변화를 가속화함으로써 반응하게 하는 공표된 수용의 역할을 한다.[5][6]

수요억제 노력에 참여하지 않는 국가는 이중적 우위를 갖는다. '녹색' 국가들이 자유롭게 설정한 탄소를 연소시키고(유출효과) 환경정책의 점진적 녹색화에 따른 발표 및 예상 가격인하(녹색 역설)에 대한 반응으로 추출한 추가 탄소를 연소시키기도 한다.[7][8]

신씨는 추상적으로 다음과 같이 쓰고 있다: "[수요 감소 전략은] 단순히 탄소의 세계 가격을 낮추고 환경 죄인들이 교토 국가들이 절약한 것을 소비하도록 유도한다. 더 심각한 것은 공급자들이 교토 국가들의 경제 정책의 점진적인 녹색화에 위협을 느낀다면, 그들은 그들의 주식을 더 빨리 추출해 지구 온난화를 가속화할 것이다."[9]

Sinn emphasises that a condition for the green paradox is that the resource be scarce in the sense that its price will always be higher than the unit extraction and exploration costs combined. He claims that this condition is likely to be satisfied as backstop technologies will at best offer a perfect substitute for electricity, but not for fossil fuels. The prices of coal and crude oil are currently many times higher than the corresponding exploration and extraction costs combined.[citation needed]

Practicable solutions

An effective climate policy must perforce focus on the hitherto neglected supply side of the carbon market in addition to the demand side. The ways proposed as practicable by Sinn include levying a withholding tax on the capital gains on the financial investments of fossil fuel resource owners, or the establishment of a seamless global emissions trading system that would effectively put a cap on worldwide fossil fuel consumption, thereby achieving the desired reduction in carbon extraction rates.

A suggestion for a solution might also be to pay suppliers for the destruction of fossil fuels (or transform them into raw material (not fuel)), thus making sure that on the demand side the independancy[clarification needed] for fossil fuels still pays off, while there is reduction in carbon extraction.

Works on the subject

Hans-Werner Sinn's ideas on the green paradox have been presented in detail in a number of scientific articles,[10][11] his 2007 Thünen Lecture[12] at the annual meeting of the Verein für Socialpolitik, his 2007 presidential address to the International Institute of Public Finance in Warwick, two working papers,[13][14] and a German-language book, “Das Grüne Paradoxon” (2008).[15] They build on his earlier studies on supply reactions of the owners of natural resources to announced price changes.[16][17]

See also

Notes and references

  1. ^ Archer, D. (2005). "Fate of Fossil Fuel CO2 in Geologic Time". Journal of Geophysical Research. 110: 5–11. Bibcode:2005JGRC..11009S05A. doi:10.1029/2004jc002625.
  2. ^ Archer, D.; Brovkin, V. (2006). "Millennial Atmospheric Lifetime of Anthropogenic CO2". Climate Change, Mimeo.
  3. ^ Hoos, G.; Voss, R.; Hasselmann, K.; Meier-Reimer, E.; Joos, F. (2001). "A Nonlinear Impulse Response Model of the Coupled Carbon Cycle-Climate System (NICCS)". Climate Dynamics. 18 (3–4): 189–202. Bibcode:2001ClDy...18..189H. doi:10.1007/s003820100170. hdl:11858/00-001M-0000-0012-02FC-3. S2CID 129396838.
  4. ^ "Support to fossil fuels remains high and the time is ripe for change - OECD". www.oecd.org. Retrieved 2018-06-18.
  5. ^ Long, N. V. (1975). "Resource Extraction under the Uncertainty about Possible Nationalization". Journal of Economic Theory. 10 (1): 42–53. doi:10.1016/0022-0531(75)90060-5.
  6. ^ Konrad, K. A.; Olson, T. E.; Schöb, R. (1994). "Resource Extraction and the Threat of Possible Expropriation: The Role of Swiss Bank Accounts". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 26 (2): 149–162. doi:10.1006/jeem.1994.1009.
  7. ^ Felder, S.; Rutherford, T. F. (1993). "Unilateral CO2 Reductions and Carbon Leakage: The Consequences of International Trade in Oil and Basic Materials". Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 25 (2): 162–176. doi:10.1006/jeem.1993.1040.
  8. ^ Burniaux, J.-M.; Martins, J. Oliveira (2000). "Carbon Emission Leakages: A General Equilibrium View". OECD Working Paper No. 242. SSRN 228535.
  9. ^ Sinn, H. W. (2008). "Public policies against global warming" (PDF). International Tax and Public Finance. 15 (4): 360–394. doi:10.1007/s10797-008-9082-z. hdl:10.1007/s10797-008-9082-z. S2CID 54687950. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-10-23. Retrieved 2011-01-11.
  10. ^ “Public Policies against Global Warming: A Supply Side Approach”, International Tax and Public Finance 15, 2008, p. 360–394.
  11. ^ H.-W. Sinn, “Das grüne Paradoxon: Warum man das Angebot bei der Klimapolitik nicht vergessen darf”, Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik 9, 2008, p. 109–142.
  12. ^ "CESifo Group Munich".[permanent dead link]
  13. ^ H.-W. Sinn, Public Policies against Global Warming, CESifo Working Paper No. 2087, August 2007
  14. ^ H.-W. Sinn, Pareto Optimality in the Extraction of Fossil Fuels and the Greenhouse Effect: A Note, CESifo Working Paper No. 2083, August 2007
  15. ^ Das grüne Paradoxon - Plädoyer für eine illusionsfreie Klimapolitik, Econ: Berlin, 2008, 480 pages.
  16. ^ Sinn, H.-W. (1982). "Absatzsteuern, Ölförderung und das Allmendeproblem" [Sales Taxes, Oil Extraction and the Common Pool Problem] (PDF). In Siebert, H. (ed.). Reaktionen auf Energiepreisänderungen. Frankfurt and Bern: Lang. pp. 83–103.
  17. ^ Long, N. V.; Sinn, H.-W. (1985). "Surprise Price Shifts, Tax Changes and the Supply Behaviour of Resource Extracting Firms" (PDF). Australian Economic Papers. 24 (45): 278–289. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.1985.tb00116.x.[permanent dead link]