Fibonacci retracement

Fibonacci retracement levels shown on the USD/CAD currency pair
Fibonacci retracement levels shown on the USD/CAD currency pair. In this case, price retraced approximately 38.2% of a move down before continuing.

In finance, Fibonacci retracement is a method of technical analysis for determining support and resistance levels.[1] It is named after the Fibonacci sequence of numbers,[1] whose ratios provide price levels to which markets tend to retrace a portion of a move, before a trend continues in the original direction.

A Fibonacci retracement forecast is created by taking two extreme points on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by important Fibonacci ratios. 0% is considered to be the start of the retracement, while 100% is a complete reversal to the original price before the move. Horizontal lines are drawn in the chart for these price levels to provide support and resistance levels. Common levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The significance of such levels, however, could not be confirmed by examining the data.[2] Arthur Merrill in Filtered Waves determined there is no reliably standard retracement.

The appearance of retracement can be ascribed to price volatility as described by Burton Malkiel, a Princeton economist in his book A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

Common uses

Fibonacci retracement is a popular tool that technical traders use to help identify strategic places for transactions, stop losses or target prices to help traders get in at a good price. The retracement concept is used in many indicators such as Tirone levels, Gartley patterns, Elliott Wave theory and more. After a significant movement in price (be it up or down) the new support and resistance levels are often at these lines.

Unlike moving averages, Fibonacci retracement levels are static prices. They do not change. This allows quick and simple identification and allows traders and investors to react when price levels are tested. Because these levels are inflection points, traders expect some type of price action, either a break or a rejection. The 0.617 Fibonacci retracement that is often used by stock analysts approximates to the "golden ratio".[1]

참고 항목

참조

  1. ^ a b c Aspray, Tom (13 August 2011). "Fibonacci analysis – Master the basics". Forbes. Retrieved 24 October 2016.
  2. ^ Kempen, René (2016). "Fibonaccis are human (made)" (PDF). IFTA Journal.
  • Stevens, Leigh (2002). Essential technical analysis: tools and techniques to spot market trends. New York: Wiley. ISBN 0-471-15279-X. OCLC 48532501.
  • Brown, Constance M. (2008). Fibonacci analysis. New York: Bloomberg Press. ISBN 978-1-57660-261-4.
  • Posamentier, Alfred S.; Lehmann, Ingmar (2007). The fabulous Fibonacci numbers. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. ISBN 978-1-59102-475-0.
  • Malkiel, Burton (2011). A random walk down Wall Street: the time-tested strategy for successful investing. OCLC 50919959.
  • MFTA Pershikov, Viktor (2014). The Complete Guide To Comprehensive Fibonacci Analysis on FOREX. ISBN 978-1607967606.
  • Bhattacharya, Sukanto 및 Kumar, Kul딥(2006) 기술 분석 및 거래에서 피보나치 시퀀스의 유효성에 대한 컴퓨터 탐구. 경제 및 재정 연보, 제7권 2006년 5월 1일자 219-230쪽. http://epublications.bond.edu.au/business_pubs/32/
  • 채터지, 아미타바, 오. 펠릭스 아야디와 발라순드람 마니암. "안보 가격 움직임을 예측하는데 있어서 피보나치 수열과 엘리엇 웨이브 이론의 적용: 조사" 상업 은행 및 금융 저널 2002: 65–76.
  • 타이량체나, 칭쑤젠가, 히아종테오하. 주가 예측을 위한 피보나치 수열에 기초한 퍼지 시계열. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and it Applications, Volume 380, 2007년 7월 1일, 페이지 377–390.

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