2018년 뉴욕 주지사 선거

2018 New York gubernatorial election
2018년 뉴욕 주지사 선거
Flag of New York (1909–2020).svg
← 2014년 2018년 11월 6일 2022 →
나타나다48.0%Increase14.8ppm
Andrew Cuomo 2017 (1).jpg Marc Molinaro (cropped 2).jpg
지명자 앤드류 쿠오모 마르크 몰리나로
파티 민주적인 공화당원
얼라이언스
파티들
파티들
러닝메이트 캐시 호철 줄리 킬리언
일반 투표 3,635,340 2,207,602
퍼센티지 59.62% 36.21%
2018 New York gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
카운티 결과
쿠오모: 40~50% 50~60% 60~70% 70~80% 80~90% 90 % 이상
몰리나로: 40~50% 50~60% 60~70% 70~80%
선거 전 주지사

앤드류 쿠오모
민주적인

선출된 주지사

앤드류 쿠오모
민주적인

뉴욕 주의 선거
Seal of the State of New York
연방 정부
대통령 선거
미국 상원
미국 하원
주정부
뉴욕 주지사 선거
법무장관 선거
주 감사원 선거
주의회 상원의원 선거
주의회 선거
연도별 주의회 선거
뉴욕 시
시장 선거

사전 통합:

통합 후:
시의회 선거

사전 통합:

통합 후:
공보위원 선거
감사원 선거
자치구장 선거
올버니
시장 선거
버팔로
시장 선거
로체스터
시장 선거
시러큐스
시장 선거

2018년 뉴욕 주지사 선거는 2018년 11월 6일 치러졌다.앤드류 쿠오모 현 민주당 주지사는 공화당의 마크 몰리나로와 몇몇 군소 정당 후보들을 물리치고 3선에 성공했다.쿠오모는 59.6%의 득표율로 몰리나로의 36.2%를 얻었다.

쿠오모는 민주당 주지사 예비선거에서 여배우이자 활동가인 신시아 닉슨을 물리쳤다.쿠오모의 러닝메이트인 캐시 호철 부지사는 부지사를 뽑는 민주당 예비선거에서 주마네 윌리엄스 뉴욕 시의원을 앞섰다.민주당 후보인 쿠오모와 호철도 독립당, 자유당, 여성평등당의 투표선에 출마했다. 닉슨과 윌리엄스가 10월 경선에서 기권한 후 쿠오모와 호철도 노동가족당의 지명을 받았다.

공화당, 보수당, 개혁당 후보였던 마크 몰리나로 전 뉴욕주 하원의원은 더치스 카운티 행정관이었다.몰리나로의 러닝메이트는 전 라이 시의원 줄리 킬리언이었다.총선 투표용지에 등장하는 제3당 주지사 후보로는 녹색당의 반복 후보인 하우이 호킨스, 새로 만들어진 서브 아메리카 운동 노선에 출마한 스테파니 마이너 전 시러큐스 시장, 2016년 빅의 자유당 예비선거에서 2위를 한 래리 샤프 등이 있다.e 미국 대통령

선거 당일 쿠오모는 현재 짙푸른 뉴욕의 전형적인 것처럼 큰 표차로 재선에 성공했다.쿠오모는 먼로, 서포크, 얼스터 카운티를 민주당으로 되돌렸다. 세 카운티 모두 2010년에 그를 지지했지만 2014년에는 공화당의 롭 아스토리노 후보를 아슬아슬하게 지지했다.그러나 몰리나로는 클린턴, 프랭클린, 에식스 등 노스컨트리 카운티와 서던티어 브룸 카운티를 공화당 후보로 돌렸습니다.

2022년 현재[update] 법무장관 선거, 상원의원 선거, 회계감사원 선거와 함께 리치몬드 카운티 또는 서퍽 카운티가 민주당에 투표한 것은 이번이 마지막이다.2022년 현재 더치스, 컬럼비아, 렌셀러, 클린턴 또는 에식스 카운티가 공화당에 투표한 것은 이번이 마지막이며, 동시에 치러진 법무장관 선거와 더불어 사라토가 카운티가 공화당에 투표한 것도 이번이 마지막이다.

쿠오모가 도지사에 재선되는 것은 이번이 마지막이다. 2021년 그는 공직에서 물러나고 호철이 뒤를 잇게 된다.

배경

앤드류 쿠오모 민주당 현 주지사는 2014년 재선에 도전하기로 했다.쿠오모 주지사는 예비선거에서 제피르 티치아웃을 63% 대 33%로 누르고, 총선에서 공화당 후보인 롭 애스토리노 웨스트체스터 카운티 행정관을 54% 대 40%로 꺾었다.그의 승리 격차와 뉴욕 북부 지방에서의 투표 집계는 재선 도전으로 감소했지만 쿠오모는 여전히 쾌적하게 당선됐다.

뉴욕 주지사 선거는 각 정당의 주지사 후보와 부지사 후보가 별도의 예비선거에 출마하는 분할 예비선거 방식으로 운영됩니다.총선에서는 후보자가 도지사/중진지사 단일 티켓으로 선정됩니다.뉴욕은 같은 선거에서 [1][2]후보들이 여러 투표선에 나타날 수 있는 선거 융합을 허용한다.

도지사 선거의 결과에 따라 투표용지와 투표 순서도 결정됩니다.한 정당의 주지사 후보가 향후 [3]4년간 뉴욕에서 자동 투표 자격을 얻으려면 5만 표 이상을 얻어야 한다.

뉴욕에서 [4]주지사 선거에서 승리한 마지막 공화당원은 2002년 조지 파타키였다.

민주당 경선

2016년 11월 15일, 앤드류 쿠오모 현 주지사는 세 번째 [5]임기를 시도할 의사를 밝혔다.2018년 5월 23일 앤드류 쿠오모 현 주지사는 주 [6]대의원 95% 이상의 지지를 얻어 주 전당대회에서 민주당 지명을 확보했다.다른 후보들은 모두 25%의 대의원 [6]기준을 충족하지 못했기 때문에 이번 전당대회에서 예비 투표에 참여할 자격이 없었다.배우이자 활동가인 신시아 닉슨은 민주당 예비선거에 [7]참여하기 위해 청원서를 제출했다.닉슨은 7월 12일까지 예비선거에 [8]필요한 15,000명의 4배가 넘는 65,000명의 청원 서명을 받았다.

후보

지명자

후보 지명 상실
철회했다
거절당했다

보증

신시아 닉슨(패배)
지방 및 주의 정치인(현직 및 전직)
개인들
단체들
미디어

폴링

폴 소스 날짜
관리된		 샘플
크기		 마진
에러의		 앤드류
쿠오모		 신시아
닉슨		 다른. 미정
시에나 대학교 2018년 9월 4일 ~ 7일 509 ± 4.3% 63% 22% 4% 11%
시에나 대학교 2018년 7월 22일 ~ 26일 630 ± 3.9% 60% 29% 1% 10%
퀴니피악 대학교 2018년 7월 12일 ~ 16일 415 ± 6.2% 59% 23% 2% 15%
Zogby Analytics 2018년 6월 27일 ~7월 3일 – – 63% 22% – 15%
시에나 대학교 2018년 6월 4일 ~ 7일 – – 61% 26% 0% 11%
퀴니피악 대학교 2018년 4월 26일 ~ 5월 1일 473 ± 5.7% 50% 28% – 22%
시에나 대학교 2018년 4월 8일 ~ 12일 – – 58% 27% 5% 11%
매리스트 칼리지 2018년 4월 3일 ~ 9일 364 ± 6.0% 68% 21% – 11%
레밍턴(R-Big Dog Strategies) 2018년 4월 7~8일 2,038 ± 2.2% 60% 20% – 19%
시에나 대학교 2018년 3월 11일 ~ 16일 363 ± 4.0% 66% 19% 1% 9%

토론 및 포럼

  • 호프스트라 대학교 – 2018년 8월 29일 – WCBS-TV[69]

결과.

민주당 도지사 예비선거 결과
쿠오모: 50~60% 60~70% 70~80% 80~90%
닉슨: 50~60%

2018년 9월 13일, 쿠오모는 민주당 주지사 [70]예비선거에서 닉슨을 이겼다.

2018년 민주당 경선 결과
뉴욕[71] 주지사
파티 후보 투표 %
민주적인 앤드류 쿠오모(인컴번트) 1,021,160 65.53%
민주적인 신시아 닉슨 537,192 34.47%
총투표수 1,558,352 100%

부지사

지명자

후보 지명 상실
  • 주마네 윌리엄스 뉴욕 시의회 의원
결과.
민주당 부지사 예비선거 결과
호철: 50~60% 60~70% 70~80%
윌리엄스: 50~60% 60~70%

캐시 호철은 민주당 [72]예비선거에서 주마인 윌리엄스 뉴욕 시의원을 근소한 차이로 이겼다.

2018년 민주당 경선 결과
뉴욕[73] 부지사
파티 후보 투표 %
민주적인 캐시 호철 (인컴번트) 733,591 53.3%
민주적인 주마인 윌리엄스 641,633 46.7%
총투표수 1,375,224 100%

공화당 예비선거

2018년 5월 23일 당은 [74]주 전당대회에서 만장일치로 마크 몰리나로를 뉴욕 주지사 후보로 지명했다.경선 투표에 대한 도전자가 없었기 때문에 공화당 경선은 실시되지 않았다.존 A 상원 원내수석부대표입니다. 드프란치스코는 공화당 [75]후보로 출마하였으나, 처음에 그를 지지했던 당 지도부가 [76]몰리나로를 대신 지지하자 2018년 4월 25일 후보직을 사퇴하였다.

지사

후보

지명자
철회했다
거절당했다

보증

John DeFrancisco (드류 포함)
연방 정치인
주의회 의원
자치 단체장
시의회 의원
  • 로드니 스트레인지, Chemung County 입법자 겸 Chemung County 공화당[102] 위원장
단체들
Brian Kolb (withdrew)
State legislators
Municipal leaders
Organizations

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
DeFrancisco 		Marc
Molinaro 		Other Undecided
Siena College April 8–12, 2018 – – 18% 18% 0% 53%
Siena College March 11–16, 2018 170 4.0% 21% 17% 0% 49%

Third-party candidates and independent candidates

Third parties with automatic ballot access

In addition to the Democratic and Republican Parties, six other political parties will have automatic ballot access; all six have chosen to exercise it. In order of ballot appearance, those parties are:

Independent candidates and third parties without automatic ballot access

Any candidate not among the eight qualified New York political parties (Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Green, Working Families, Independence, Women's Equality and Reform, respectively) was required to submit petitions to gain ballot access. Such candidates did not face primary elections. At the time, third parties whose respective gubernatorial candidates received at least 50,000 votes in the general election secured automatic ballot access in all state and federal elections through the 2022 elections, but due to a 2020 law to change the requirements 4 parties lost that access in 2020 (Libertarian, Independence, Working Families, Serve America Movement).[124]

Libertarian Party

Business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primaryLarry Sharpe ran on the Libertarian Party line

On July 12, 2017, Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary, officially announced that he would run for Governor of New York in 2018. Sharpe was the first person to announce his candidacy to run against incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo.[125][126] On August 19, 2018, the Libertarian Party announced it had collected over 30,000 signatures to place its ticket onto the November ballot.[127] Sharpe's petitions survived a petition challenge.[128]

  • Nominee: Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary[129][130]
    • Running mate: Andrew Hollister, candidate for Rochester City Council in 2017[126]

Serve America Movement

On June 18, 2018, former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, after expressing informal interest in the Working Families and Reform nominations,[131] entered the gubernatorial race as a third-party candidate.[132] Miner "plans to run under the banner of an upstart new group, the Serve America Movement, which calls itself SAM, formed by people disaffected by the existing party structure after the 2016 elections. She will be the group's first candidate." Miner circulated designating petitions to create a SAM Party in New York, and on August 21, her campaign announced that it had submitted over 40,000 petition signatures.[20] Miner's submitted petitions far exceeded the 15,000 required to qualify for the November ballot.[133] Persons tied to the Cuomo campaign, after reviewing the petitions, failed to find enough specific objections to challenge their validity.[133]

Rent Is Too Damn High Party (disqualified)

Jimmy McMillan, the party's founder and figurehead indicated on the party website that he would make another attempt at the office.[135] He submitted petitions on August 21, 2018, with himself as the gubernatorial nominee and Christialle Felix as his running mate.[136][137] When the ballot order was released, McMillan and the Rent Is Too Damn High Party had been disqualified and removed from the ballot.[138]

General election

Debates

Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Marc
Molinaro (R) 		Larry
Sharpe (L) 		Howie
Hawkins (G) 		Stephanie
Miner (SAM)
WCBS-TV October 23, 2018 [139] Participant Participant Non-invitee Non-invitee Non-invitee
College of St. Rose November 1, 2018 [140] Absentee Participant Participant Participant Participant

Endorsements

Andrew Cuomo (D)
U.S. cabinet members and cabinet-level officials
State Officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local and state politicians
Organizations
Media
Individuals
Marc Molinaro (R)
U.S. governors
U.S. representatives
State legislators
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Larry Sharpe (L)
U.S. governors
U.S. municipal legislators
Other politicians
Individuals
Organizations
Howie Hawkins (G)
Local politicians (former)
Individuals
  • Jimmy Dore, stand-up comedian and political commentator for hosting The Jimmy Dore Show and co-hosting The Aggressive Progressives on Young Turks[230][231]
Stephanie Miner (SAM)
Newspapers
  • Adirondack Daily Enterprise[232]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[233] Safe D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[234] Safe D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[235] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[236] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[237] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[238] Safe D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[239] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[240][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[241] Safe D November 5, 2018
Governing[242] Safe D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo
(D) 		Marc
Molinaro
(R) 		Stephanie
Miner
(SAM) 		Howie
Hawkins
(G) 		Larry
Sharpe
(L) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 37% – – – 3% 6%
Siena College October 28 – November 1, 2018 641 ± 3.9% 49% 36% 2% 2% 3% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2018 852 ± 4.4% 58% 35% – – – 2% 5%
Gravis Marketing (L-Sharpe) October 4–8, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 48% 25% 8% 6% 13% – –
Siena College September 20–27, 2018 701 ± 3.9% 56% 38% – – – 0% 4%
Liberty Opinion Research (R-Reform Party) August 29–30, 2018 2,783 ± 1.9% 46% 43% – – – – 11%
Quinnipiac University July 12–16, 2018 934 ± 4.1% 57% 31% – – – 0% 8%
Zogby Analytics June 27 – July 3, 2018 708 ± 3.7% 50% 27% 10% 4% – – 9%
49% 27% 11% – – – 12%
52% 32% – – – – 15%
Siena College June 4–7, 2018 745 ± 3.7% 56% 37% – – – 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University April 26 – May 1, 2018 1,076 ± 3.7% 57% 26% – – – 2% 12%
Siena College April 8–12, 2018 692 ± 4.3% 57% 31% – – – 0% 9%
Siena College March 11–16, 2018 772 ± 4.0% 57% 29% – – – 0% 11%
Hypothetical polling
with Cynthia Nixon as WFP nominee
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo
(D) 		Marc
Molinaro
(R) 		Cynthia
Nixon
(WFP) 		Stephanie
Miner
(SAM) 		Howie
Hawkins
(G) 		Larry
Sharpe
(L) 		Other Undecided
Siena College September 20–27, 2018 701 ± 3.9% 50% 28% 10% 1% 1% 2% 0% 8%
Liberty Opinion Research (R-Reform Party) August 29–30, 2018 2,783 ± 1.9% 31% 30% 14% 5% 5% 5% – 10%
Quinnipiac University July 12–16, 2018 934 ± 4.1% 43% 23% 13% 1% 2% 3% 1% 14%
Zogby Analytics June 27 – July 3, 2018 708 ± 3.7% 44% 26% 14% 6% 3% – – 7%
Gravis Marketing (L-Sharpe) June 4–7, 2018 654 ± 3.8% 43% 15% 15% – 4% 6% – 18%
Quinnipiac University April 26 – May 1, 2018 1,076 ± 3.7% 40% 23% 20% – – – 0% 15%
with Cynthia Nixon as Democratic nominee
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Cynthia
Nixon (D) 		Marc
Molinaro (R) 		Other Undecided
Siena College June 4–7, 2018 745 ± 3.7% 46% 35% 2% 15%
with John DeFrancisco
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		John
DeFrancisco (R) 		Other Undecided
Siena College April 8–12, 2018 692 ± 4.3% 56% 32% 1% 9%
Siena College March 11–16, 2018 772 ± 4.0% 57% 28% 1% 11%
with Carl Paladino
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Carl
Paladino (R) 		Undecided
Marist College June 6–10, 2017 703 ± 3.7% 57% 26% 17%
with Rob Astorino
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Rob
Astorino (R) 		Undecided
Marist College June 6–10, 2017 703 ± 3.7% 58% 26% 16%
with Chris Gibson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Chris
Gibson (R) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 7–10, 2016 1,403 ± 2.6% 49% 26% 26%
with Donald Trump, Jr.
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Donald
Trump Jr. (R) 		Undecided
Marist College June 6–10, 2017 703 ± 3.7% 62% 27% 11%
with Harry Wilson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Harry
Wilson (R) 		Undecided
Marist College June 6–10, 2017 703 ± 3.7% 58% 22% 20%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 10, 2018
Candidate Amount raised
Andrew Cuomo $13,778,685.04
Marc Molinaro $1,914,828.14
Larry Sharpe $449,515.19
Stephanie Miner $725,060.93
Howie Hawkins $189,918.94
Source: New York State Board of Elections[243]

Results

On November 6, 2018, the Cuomo-Hochul ticket defeated the Molinaro-Killian ticket by a margin of 59.6%–36.2%. Cuomo received 3,635,430 votes,[21] making him the top vote earner in any New York gubernatorial election in history.[244]

2018 New York gubernatorial election[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Andrew Cuomo 3,424,416 56.16% +8.64%
Working Families Andrew Cuomo 114,478 1.88% -1.43%
Independence Andrew Cuomo 68,713 1.13% -0.91%
Women's Equality Andrew Cuomo 27,733 0.45% -0.96%
Total Andrew Cuomo (incumbent) 3,635,340 59.62% +5.43%
Republican Marc Molinaro 1,926,485 31.60% -0.79%
Conservative Marc Molinaro 253,624 4.16% -2.41%
Reform Marc Molinaro 27,493 0.45% N/A
Total Marc Molinaro 2,207,602 36.21% -4.10%
Green Howie Hawkins 103,946 1.70% -3.14%
Libertarian Larry Sharpe 95,033 1.56% +1.12%
SAM Stephanie Miner 55,441 0.91% N/A
Total votes 6,097,362 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Aftermath

Cuomo was sworn in for a third term as governor on January 1, 2019.[245] He would resign from the governorship on August 10, 2021, following sexual harassment allegations and a nursing home scandal that plagued his third term.[246] Cuomo also faced poor polling numbers; he barely polled ahead of Republican Lee Zeldin and Rob Astorino in 2021.[247]

Howie Hawkins lost ballot access for the Green Party under new requirements as of December 2021.[248]

Stephanie Miner also lost her ballot access for the Serve America Movement as of New York State election law of December 2021. [249]

The Libertarian Party of New York lost their ballot access with Larry Sharpe's 95,033 votes under new New York State election law requirements as of December, 2021. [250]

The Women's Equality Party and Reform Party of New York both lost automatic ballot access by failing to meet the requirements of the New York State election law of December 2021. [251]

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External links

Official campaign websites